Dengue Fever Epidemic Potential as Predicted by General Circulation Models of Global Climate Change

• Published in: Environmental health perspectives Vol. 106; no. 3; p. 147
• Main Authors: Patz, Jonathan A, Martens, Willem JM, Focks, Dana A, Jetten, Theo H
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01-03-1998
• ISSN: 0091-6765

Outbreaks in urban areas infected with dengue fever's primary vector, Aedes aegypti, can involve up to 70 80% of the population, with no vaccine currently available. The transmission of dengue viruses is influenced by climate, among other factors, with the infectious agents requiring cold-blooded invertebrate species to complete their life cycle. Temperature strongly affects pathogen replication, maturation, and period of infectivity. A scenario-based modeling approach is presented as an important step toward quantifying potential alteration in dengue transmission as a result of climate change. The focus was on the influence of temperature on the dynamics of viral transmission for a given infected mosquito population. Climate-model outputs were applied to the vectorial capacity model of disease transmission using well-validated climate-related parameters previously used in a dengue-transmission simulation model. The outcome parameter was the epidemic potential, which is the reciprocal of the critical-density threshold. Results suggested that epidemic potential increased with a relatively small temperature rise, indicating that fewer mosquitoes would be necessary to maintain or spread dengue in a vulnerable population.