Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple-trace memory model

Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple-trace memory model

This research examined a memory processes account of the calibration of probability judgments. A multiple-trace memory model, MINERVA-DM (MDM; Dougherty, Ogden, & Gettys, 1999), was used to integrate the ecological (Brunswikian) and the error (Thurstonian) models of overconfidence. The model pre...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Dougherty, Michael R. P
Format: Dissertation
Language:English
Published: ProQuest Dissertations & Theses 01-01-1999
Subjects:
Cognitive psychology
Cognitive therapy
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Summary:This research examined a memory processes account of the calibration of probability judgments. A multiple-trace memory model, MINERVA-DM (MDM; Dougherty, Ogden, & Gettys, 1999), was used to integrate the ecological (Brunswikian) and the error (Thurstonian) models of overconfidence. The model predicts that overconfidence should decrease both as a function of experience and as a function of encoding quality. Both increased experience and improved encoding quality result in lower error variance in the output of the model, which in turn leads to better calibration. Three experiments confirmed these predictions. Implications of MDM's account of overconfidence are discussed.
ISBN:0599309288
9780599309289