COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE ACTUAL AND EXPECTED CANCER MORBIDITY IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION REGIONS AFFECTED BY THE RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION RESULTING FROM THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

• Published in: Радиационная гигиена Vol. 4; no. 2; pp. 87 - 95
• Main Authors: V. V. Kuchumov, A. A. Lyapkalo, M. S. Nikolaevich
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Saint-Petersburg Research Institute of Radiation Hygiene after Professor P.V. Ramzaev 01-09-2015
• Subjects: ионизирующие излучения; онкологическая заболеваемость; прогнозные значения; фактический уровень; чернобыльская авария
• ISSN: 1998-426X

Dynamics of the cancer morbidity for the population during the period from 1980 to 1986 as well as during the period from 2004 to 2006 was investigated in 14 regions of the Russian Federation affected by the radioactive contamination due to the Chernobyl accident. Comparison of the indicators with the data from the Orenburg region was done. A moderate upward trend of the actual indicators was revealed as the result of their analysis. General morbidity for the urban population was higher than for the rural population.Mathematic models based on the data from 80-ties were created for the calculation of expected values of morbidity indicators in 2004 to 2006. During the comparison of the actual and expected values it was revealed, that actual morbidity for the urban population was less than calculated value except for the Kaluga and Orenburg regions. As a rule, actual morbidity for the rural population exceeded calculated value.