Climate Extremes in the New Zealand Region: Mechanisms, Impacts and Attribution

• Published in: International journal of climatology
• Main Authors: Salinger, M. James, Trenberth, Kevin E., Diamond, Howard J., Behrens, Erik, Fitzharris, B. Blair, Herold, Nicholas, Smith, Robert O., Sutton, Phil J., Trought, Michael C. T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 11-11-2024
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.8667

ABSTRACT As global surface temperatures have increased with human‐induced climate change, notable compound climate extremes in the New Zealand (NZ) region associated with atmospheric heatwaves (AHWs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in the past 6 years. Natural modes of variability that also played a key role regionally include the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and changes in the location and strength of the westerlies as seen in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Along with mean warming of 0.8°C since 1900, a negative phase of the IPO, La Niña phase of ENSO and a strongly positive SAM contributed to five compound warm extremes in the extended austral summer seasons (NDJFM) of 1934/35, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2021/22 and 2022/23. These are the most intense coupled ocean/atmosphere (MHWs/AHWs) heatwaves on record with average temperature anomalies over land and sea +0.8°C to 1.1°C above 1991–2020 averages. The number of days above 25°C and above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature has increased, while the number of nights below 0°C and below the 10th percentile has decreased. Coastal waters around NZ recently experienced their longest MHW in the satellite era (1982‐present) of 289 days through 2023. The estimated recurrence interval reduces from 1 in 300‐years for the AHW event during the 1930s climate to a 1 in 25‐year event for the most recent decade. Consequences include major loss of ice of almost one‐third volume from Southern Alps glaciers from 2017 to 2021 with rapid melt of seasonal snow in all four cases. Above‐average temperatures in the December/January grape flowering period resulted in advances in veraison (the onset of ripening); and higher‐than‐average grape yields in 2022 and 2023 vintages. Marine impacts include widespread sea‐sponge bleaching around northern and southern NZ.