Mathematical modeling of the effects of atmospheric pressure on mosquito (Díptera: Culicidae) population density in Villa Clara, Cuba

• Published in: Revista de la Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Vol. 68; no. 4; pp. 541 - 549
• Main Authors: Fimia-Duarte, Rigoberto, Osés-Rodríguez, Ricardo, Alarcón-Elbal, Pedro María, Aldaz-Cárdenas, Jaime Wilfrido, Roig-Boffill, Bárbara Verónica, Fé-Rodríguez, Pedro Yoelvys de la
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English; Portuguese
• Published: Universidad Nacional de Colombia 01-12-2020
• Subjects: MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL; Cuba; Vectores de enfermedades (DeCS); Disease Vectors (MeSH); Predicción; Forecasting; Culicidae
• ISSN: 0120-0011
• DOI: 10.15446/revfacmed.v68n4.79516

Abstract Introduction: Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) are considered one of the most versatile organisms in the world as they can breed in any pool of water, such as puddles or tanks. However, their reproduction is influenced by atmospheric variables that allow predicting their population density. Objective: To assess the impact of atmospheric pressure on mosquito population density in the province of Villa Clara, Cuba, by means of a mathematical model based on a regressive objective regression (ROR) methodology. Materials and methods: The development of the mathematical model to predict breeding sites was based on the number of breeding sites reported in the province of Villa Clara between 2000 and 2017, and the ROR model. Furthermore, a regression analysis was carried out using the IBM SPSS® version 19.0, which allowed obtaining models that explained 100% of the variance, with its corresponding standard error. Results: With respect to the number of breeding sites, an increasing trend was observed in the municipality of Cifuentes, while the trend was downward in Ranchuelo and Caibarién. The municipalities of Santa Clara and Encrucijada had the highest and lowest standard deviation (13.432 vs. 5.968, respectively), which demonstrates great variability among the data of each municipality. Conclusions: There is a close relationship between atmospheric pressure and mosquito population density since both total and specific larval densities increase as atmospheric pressure increases.