A multi-expert system for ranking patents: An approach based on fuzzy pay-off distributions and a TOPSISaAHP framework

• Published in: Expert systems with applications Vol. 40; no. 12; pp. 4749 - 4759
• Main Authors: Collan, Mikael, Fedrizzi, Mario, Luukka, Pasi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01-09-2013
• Subjects: Analytic hierarchy process; Fuzzy; Fuzzy logic; Fuzzy set theory; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Ranking
• ISSN: 0957-4174
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.02.012

The aim of this paper is to introduce a decision support system that ranks patents based on multiple expert evaluations. The presented approach starts with the creation of three value scenarios for each considered patent by each expert. These are used for the construction of individual fuzzy pay-off distribution functions for the patent value; a consensual fuzzy pay-off distribution is then determined starting from the individual distributions. Possibilistic moments are calculated from the consensus pay-off distribution for each patent and used in ranking them with TOPSIS. It is further showed how the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can be used to include additional decision variables into the patent selection, thus allowing for a two-tier decision making process. The system is illustrated with a numerical example and the usability of the system and the combination of methods it includes for patent portfolio selection in the real world context is discussed.