Mortality attributable to PM2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

• Published in: Science advances Vol. 10; no. 23; p. eadl1252
• Main Authors: Connolly, Rachel, Marlier, Miriam E, Garcia-Gonzales, Diane A, Wilkins, Joseph, Su, Jason, Bekker, Claire, Jung, Jihoon, Bonilla, Eimy, Burnett, Richard T, Zhu, Yifang, Jerrett, Michael
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science 07-06-2024
• Subjects: Environmental Studies; Public Health; SciAdv r-articles; Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences and Public Health
• ISSN: 2375-2548; 2375-2548
• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl1252

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM2.5, applying ZIP code-level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $432 to $456 billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM2.5, applying ZIP code-level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $432 to $456 billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.