Fractional-order DISPR model for the AIDS epidemiological dynamics

• Published in: 2017 European Conference on Circuit Theory and Design (ECCTD) pp. 1 - 4
• Main Authors: Attia, A. M., Zahran, D. M., Abdelwahab, M. M., Mohamed, N. A., AbdelAty, A. M., Radwan, A. G.
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 01-09-2017
• Subjects: AIDS; epidemiology; Fractional calculus; HIV; Human immunodeficiency virus; infection group; Numerical models; Predictive models; Sociology; Statistics
• ISSN: 2474-9672
• DOI: 10.1109/ECCTD.2017.8093245

Modeling epidemiological dynamics of AIDS infection is an indispensable method to track the spread of such fatal disease. In this paper, the Differential Infectivity and Staged Progression Model, DISP, is modified to include the possibility of recovery, hence the new proposed model is called the DISPR model. The DISPR model is also generalized to the fractional order domain to allow more flexibility. In order to compare, both models are tested on the same sample of population. The DISPR model is proved to be valid by predicting the same behavior of the DISP model and real epidemiology. Although, it leads to different estimated numbers of individuals from the DISP model, this result is reasonable due to the consideration of recovery possibility.