Safety and sensitivity analysis of the advanced airspace concept for nextgen

• Published in: 2012 Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Conference pp. O2-1 - O2-10
• Main Authors: Shortle, J., Sherry, L., Yousefi, A., Xie, R.
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 01-04-2012
• Subjects: Aircraft; Analytical models; Atmospheric modeling; Computational modeling; Mathematical model; Reliability; Transponders
• ISBN: 1467319015; 9781467319010
• ISSN: 2155-4943; 2155-4951
• DOI: 10.1109/ICNSurv.2012.6218434

This paper presents a model and methodology for a safety and sensitivity analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept. This analysis is part of a larger effort to analyze safety-capacity tradeoffs in NextGen concepts. A key part of the model is the definition of a dynamic event tree, which is like a standard event tree, but also includes the dimension of time in the state-space description. The model is constructed and evaluated in an automated fashion based on a set of input tables. Thus, changes to the model are easily implemented and results are automatically recomputed. The analytical implementation can be evaluated fairly quickly (a couple seconds per evaluation). A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the transponder failure probability is a critical model parameter.