The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

• Published in: International journal of forecasting Vol. 8; no. 3; p. 367
• Main Authors: Bos, E, Bulatao, R A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands 01-11-1992
• Subjects: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Africa; Africa South of the Sahara; Demography; Developing Countries; Disease; Forecasting; HIV Infections; Methods; Mortality; Population; Population Dynamics; Statistics as Topic; Virus Diseases; Africa South of the Sahara; Africa; Mortality; Population Projection; Africa; Methodological Studies; Viral Diseases; Hiv Infections; Research Methodology; Population Forecast; Diseases; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Population; Developing Countries; Africa South Of The Sahara; Estimation Technics; Demographic Factors; Population Dynamics
• ISSN: 0169-2070
• DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90053-C

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections... The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."