Modelling the Holocene migrational dynamics of Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst

• Published in: Global ecology and biogeography Vol. 23; no. 6; pp. 658 - 668
• Main Authors: Lehsten, Doerte, Dullinger, Stefan, Hülber, Karl, Schurgers, Guy, Cheddadi, Rachid, Laborde, Henri, Lehsten, Veiko, François, Louis, Dury, Marie, Sykes, Martin T
• Format: Journal Article Web Resource
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Blackwell Science 01-06-2014; Blackwell Publishing Ltd; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; Blackwell; Wiley
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal migration behavior; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biogeography; Biological and medical sciences; climate; Climate change; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; competition; DGVM; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Earth, ocean, space; Ecological modeling; Ecology, environment; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fagus sylvatica; Fagus sylvatica subsp. sylvatica; fecundity; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; General aspects. Techniques; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Holocene; Holocene migration; hybrids; Life Sciences; LPJ-CATS; Meteorology; Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...); migration; Natural Sciences; Naturgeografi; Naturvetenskap; Paleoclimatology; Physical Geography; Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences; Physique, chimie, mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Picea abies; Plants; Pollen; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; Seed dispersal; Simulations; Synecology; trees; Vegetation; Europe; Competition; Migration; Biogeography; Modeling; Karst; Dynamics; Dicotyledones; Angiospermae; Gymnospermae; Fissipedia; Carnivora; DGVM; LPJ-CATS; Ecology; Fagaceae; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Vertebrata; Mammalia; Holocene migration; Cat; Coniferales; Spermatophyta; Holocene; Picea abies; Fagus sylvatica; LPJ‐CATS; competition
• ISSN: 1466-822X; 1466-8238; 1466-8238; 1466-822X
• DOI: 10.1111/geb.12145

AIM: Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance‐driven succession and competition processes are reduced to simple assumptions or are even missing. The aim of this study was to test a combination of a migration model and a dynamic vegetation model to estimate the migration of tree species controlled by climate, environment and local species dynamics such as succession and competition. LOCATION: Europe. METHODS: To estimate the effect of vegetation dynamics on the migration of European beech and Norway spruce, we developed a post‐process migration tool (LPJ‐CATS). This tool integrates outputs of the migration model CATS and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS. The model LPJ‐CATS relies on a linear dependency between the dispersal kernel and migration rate and is based on the assumption that competition reduces fecundity. RESULTS: Simulating potential migration rates with the CATS model, which does not account for competition and disturbance, resulted in mean Holocene migration rates of 435 ± 55 and 330 ± 95 m year⁻¹ for the two species Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, respectively. With LPJ‐CATS, these mean migration rates were reduced to 250 ± 75 and 170 ± 60 m year⁻¹ for spruce and beech, respectively. Moreover, LPJ‐CATS simulated migration pathways of these two species that generally comply well with those documented in the palaeo‐records. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our ‘hybrid’ modelling approach allowed for the simulation of generally realistic Holocene migration rates and pathways of the two study species on a continental scale. It suggests that competition can considerably modify spread rates, but also the magnitude of its effect depends on how close climate conditions are to the niche requirements of a particular species.