Application of a binary logistic model in the development of strategies to encourage sustainable transportation in medium-sized cities: case of study

• Published in: Transportes (Rio de Janeiro) Vol. 28; no. 3
• Main Authors: Natalia Assunção Brasil Silva, Heraldo Nunes Pitanga, Taciano Oliveira da Silva, Paulo César Emiliano
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Associação Nacional de Pesquisa e Ensino em Transportes (ANPET) 01-08-2020
• Subjects: Sustainable urban mobility. Motorized and non-motorized modes of transportation. Logistic regression model
• ISSN: 2237-1346
• DOI: 10.14295/transportes.v28i3.2100

Demographically medium-sized cities play a significant role in the economy and population spreading in growing countries. Their development and fast pace expansion reveal the need for an efficient, sustainable mobility plan. Once the transport mode used by the population affects the sustainability of urban trips, it is crucial to understand the influence that socioeconomic and daily trips characteristics exert on the choice of transportation modes. In this context, having as study scenery, the reality of Barreiras, a demographically medium-sized city located in Bahia State, this paper aims to identify and quantify the impact of those characteristics in the usage of transportation by the corresponding population and, consequently, its effects in sustainable mobility. To do that, we exploited the association strength of inherent society characteristics with the choice of transportation mode, measured through a predictive binary logistic regression model. We concluded that statistical modeling of variables that are inherent to investigated medium-sized city population could assist the design of strategies to encourage the use of sustainable transportation modes.