Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 11; no. 12; p. e0168045
• Main Authors: Favre, Maroussia, Wittwer, Amrei, Heinimann, Hans Rudolf, Yukalov, Vyacheslav I, Sornette, Didier
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 09-12-2016; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Analysis; Behavior; Biology and Life Sciences; Calculus; Cognition & reasoning; Cognitive ability; Cognitive psychology; Data processing; Datasets; Decision Making; Decision theory; Economics; Expected utility; Gender differences; Hilbert space; Humans; Lotteries; Parameter estimation; Physical Sciences; Physics; Physics research; Probability; Quantum mechanics; Quantum physics; Quantum Theory; Social Sciences; Stochasticity; Switzerland; Singapore
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168045

Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains.