Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 38; no. 1; pp. 265 - 276
• Main Authors: Mohr, S.H., Evans, G.M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 2010; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Series: Energy Policy
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Economic data; Energy; Energy economics; Energy policy; Energy sector; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting; Forecasts; Fossil fuels and derived products; General, economic and professional studies; Mining; Modeling; Modelling; Natural resources; Oil; Oil resources; Oil shale; Oil supply; Petroleum industry; Petroleum production; Production; Studies; Supply; Supply and demand; Unconventional oil; Unconventional oil Modeling Supply; World; Supply; Unconventional oil; Modeling; Mining; In situ; Production; Planetary scale; Production capacity; Oil economy; Long term; Bitumen
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.015

Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32
Gb/y (49–88
Mb/d) in 2076–2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.