The influencing factors and spillover effects of interprovincial agricultural carbon emissions in China

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 15; no. 11; p. e0240800
• Main Authors: Chen, Weidong, Peng, Yufang, Yu, Guanyi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 04-11-2020; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Agriculture - economics; Agriculture - methods; Agriculture - trends; Agronomy; Air Pollutants - analysis; Algorithms; Biology and Life Sciences; Carbon; Carbon - analysis; Carbon dioxide; Carbon Dioxide - analysis; Carbon dioxide emissions; Carbon emissions; China; Circular economy; Climate change; Computer and Information Sciences; Earth Sciences; Economic aspects; Economic development; Economic Development - statistics & numerical data; Economic Development - trends; Economic factors; Emissions; Emissions (Pollution); Energy management; Environmental aspects; Environmental factors; Environmental impact; Environmental pollution; Environmental Pollution - analysis; Environmental protection; Forecasts and trends; Models, Theoretical; People and Places; Physical Sciences; Pollution effects; Research and Analysis Methods; Social Sciences; China
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240800

Agricultural carbon emissions have become the constraints of agricultural low-carbon and circular economy development in China. China's agricultural production faces severe pressures and challenges in agricultural carbon reduction. In this paper, we take observation for the 31 provinces in china from 1997 to 2017, to explore the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of agricultural by estimating spatial panel data models. The results show that China's agricultural carbon emissions will continue to increase in the future, because the growth of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is the main driving force to accelerate the growth of agricultural carbon emissions, but the agricultural input factors will help to reduce the growth of carbon emissions. Moreover, it is proved that economic factors and agricultural input factors have direct effects and spatial spillover effects on agricultural carbon emissions except for agricultural environmental factors. In the short term, strengthening environmental protection may bring some pressure to the economic development of some places, but to achieve high-quality development, we must fundamentally solve the problem of environmental pollution. The conclusion provides important enlightenment and scientific basis for formulating effective policies to curb the growth of CO2 emissions in China.