Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 67; pp. 127 - 137
• Main Authors: Cannemi, Marco, García-Melón, Mónica, Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo, Gómez-Navarro, Tomás
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01-04-2014; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Analytic Network Process; Applied sciences; Biomass; Biomass energy; Biomass power projects; Capital risk; Decision analysis; Decision making; Decision making models; Economic data; Electric power generation; Electric power plants; Energy; Energy economics; Energy policy; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting; General, economic and professional studies; Incentives; Investors; Italy; Markets; Methodology. Modelling; Natural energy; Policy making; Power plants; Public administration; Renewable energy; Renewable energy sources; Renewable resources; Risk; Studies; Italy; Biomass power projects; Analytic Network Process; Capital risk
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.011

This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development.
Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors preferences towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors’ reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors’ decisions.
Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario.
A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations’s and promoters’, how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models.
•We applied ANP to the investors’ preferences on biomass power plants projects.•The aim is to improve the advising tools for renewable energy policy making.•A case study has been carried out with the help of two experts.•We designed two scenarios: decision making as it is and how could it be improved.•Results prove ANP is a fruitful tool enhancing participation and transparency.