Publishing trends on climate change vulnerability in the conservation literature reveal a predominant focus on direct impacts and long time‐scales

• Published in: Diversity & distributions Vol. 20; no. 10; pp. 1221 - 1228
• Main Authors: Chapman, Sarah, Mustin, Karen, Renwick, Anna R, Segan, Daniel B, Hole, David G, Pearson, Richard G, Watson, James E. M, Richardson, David
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Blackwell Science 01-10-2014; Blackwell Publishing Ltd; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; Blackwell; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Adaptation; Adaptation planning; Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Biodiversity; BIODIVERSITY VIEWPOINT; Biological and medical sciences; Biological diversity conservation; Biosphere; Climate change; Climatic conditions; climatic factors; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Conservation; Conservation biology; Decision making; direct effects; Earth, ocean, space; Ecosystem biology; Ecosystems; Environmental impact; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; extreme climate; extreme weather; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Global temperature changes; Greenhouse effect; humans; Impact factors; indirect effects; issues and policy; Meteorology; Nonnative species; Phenology; politics; Precipitation; Predation; Scholarly publishing; Sea level; Seasonal variations; Synecology; time-scale; vulnerability; Wildlife conservation; indirect effects; Climate; Conservation; extreme climate; Environmental factor; Time scale; Vulnerability; Biodiversity; Dynamical climatology; Weather; Climate change; time-scale; extreme weather; Planning; Adaptation planning; direct effects; Adaptation
• ISSN: 1366-9516; 1472-4642
• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12234

Over the past twelve years the number of papers that explore the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the conservation literature has grown on average by 20% annually. By categorising these papers on their primary research questions, we show that the vast majority of these articles (88.6%) focus only on those impacts that arise directly as a result of climate change, ignoring the potentially significant indirect threats that arise from human adaptation responses. This pattern has remained fairly consistent throughout the review period (2000–2012), with a trend towards more articles considering both direct and indirect impacts towards the end of the period. We also find a bias in the time‐frames considered by published articles that project future impacts of climate change on biodiversity, with more than three‐quarters (77.9%) of papers only considering impacts after 2031, and almost half (49.1%) only considering impacts after 2051. This focus on long‐term, direct impacts creates a mismatch, not only with the life‐cycles of species and timescales of many ecological processes, but also with most management and policy timelines and the short‐term nature of human decision making processes. The focus on studying the long‐term, direct impacts of climate change on biodiversity is likely a function of the lack of availability of climate projections on shorter temporal scales; a perception that short‐term impacts will be minor; and, insufficient integration with the social and political sciences. While the direct impact of changes in mean climatic conditions will significantly change the biosphere by the end of the century, near term changes in seasonality and extreme events coupled with human adaptation responses are likely to have substantial impacts much sooner, threatening the survival of species and ecosystems. It is therefore essential that we balance our research efforts to facilitate a better understanding of these more imminent threats.