Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

• Published in: Infectious disease modelling Vol. 5; pp. 264 - 270
• Main Authors: Mizumoto, Kenji, Chowell, Gerardo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: China Elsevier B.V 01-01-2020; KeAi Publishing; KeAi Communications Co., Ltd
• Subjects: Confined settings; Corona; Cruise; Epidemic; Next generation matrix; Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu; Epidemic; Next generation matrix; Corona; Confined settings; Cruise
• ISSN: 2468-0427; 2468-2152; 2468-0427
• DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003

An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.