Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 4304
• Main Authors: Howard, Christine, Marjakangas, Emma-Liina, Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra, Milanesi, Pietro, Abuladze, Aleksandre, Aghababyan, Karen, Ajder, Vitalie, Arkumarev, Volen, Balmer, Dawn E., Bauer, Hans-Günther, Beale, Colin M., Bino, Taulant, Boyla, Kerem Ali, Burfield, Ian J., Burke, Brian, Caffrey, Brian, Chodkiewicz, Tomasz, Del Moral, Juan Carlos, Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic, Fernández, Néstor, Fornasari, Lorenzo, Gerlach, Bettina, Godinho, Carlos, Herrando, Sergi, Ieronymidou, Christina, Johnston, Alison, Jovicevic, Mihailo, Kalyakin, Mikhail, Keller, Verena, Knaus, Peter, Kotrošan, Dražen, Kuzmenko, Tatiana, Leitão, Domingos, Lindström, Åke, Maxhuni, Qenan, Mihelič, Tomaž, Mikuska, Tibor, Molina, Blas, Nagy, Károly, Noble, David, Øien, Ingar Jostein, Paquet, Jean-Yves, Pladevall, Clara, Portolou, Danae, Radišić, Dimitrije, Rajkov, Saša, Rajković, Draženko Z., Raudonikis, Liutauras, Sattler, Thomas, Saveljić, Darko, Shimmings, Paul, Sjenicic, Jovica, Šťastný, Karel, Stoychev, Stoycho, Strus, Iurii, Sudfeldt, Christoph, Sultanov, Elchin, Szép, Tibor, Teufelbauer, Norbert, Uzunova, Danka, van Turnhout, Chris A. M., Velevski, Metodija, Vikstrøm, Thomas, Vintchevski, Alexandre, Voltzit, Olga, Voříšek, Petr, Wilk, Tomasz, Zurell, Damaris, Brotons, Lluís, Lehikoinen, Aleksi, Willis, Stephen G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 20-07-2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/1144; 631/158/2165; 631/158/851; animal; Animal breeding; Animals; Biologi; Biological Sciences; bird; Birds; Breeding; breeding population; climate; Climate Change; climate conditions; Climate effects; Climate models; Climate Research; Climatic conditions; Colonization; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Ecology; Ecosystem; Ekologi; Endangered & extinct species; endangered species; expectation; forecasting; Geographical distribution; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Humanities and Social Sciences; Klimatforskning; Land cover; land use; mass extinction; Mass extinctions; multidisciplinary; Natural Sciences; Naturvetenskap; nonhuman; probability; range expansion; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Species extinction
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
Species’ range shifts projections are usually based on climate and land cover variables. Here, the authors use long-term records for bird species to show that species distribution models accounting for climate and land cover often fail to predict observed range shifts.