江淮流域持续性极端降水及预报方法研究进展
持续性极端降水过程会引发严重的洪涝灾害,是我国主要的灾害性天气之一,其形成机理和预报理论与方法研究受到广泛关注。近年来,针对持续性极端降水的形成机理和预报方法研究取得了一系列进展,主要包括：开展了我国区域性持续性极端降水事件的自动识别方法研究,研制建立了江淮流域持续性极端降水的大尺度环流概念模型,并提取了1-2周的前兆信号;从东亚一太平洋遥相关型（EAP）角度探究其对持续性极端降水的影响机理,并探讨利用EAP对江淮流域持续性极端降水进行预报的可行性。此外,在上述研究的基础上发展了基于关键影响系统的持续性极端降水的物理统计预报方法。...
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| Published in: | 应用气象学报 Vol. 27; no. 5; pp. 631 - 640 |
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| Main Author: | |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Chinese |
| Published: |
中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | 持续性极端降水过程会引发严重的洪涝灾害,是我国主要的灾害性天气之一,其形成机理和预报理论与方法研究受到广泛关注。近年来,针对持续性极端降水的形成机理和预报方法研究取得了一系列进展,主要包括：开展了我国区域性持续性极端降水事件的自动识别方法研究,研制建立了江淮流域持续性极端降水的大尺度环流概念模型,并提取了1-2周的前兆信号;从东亚一太平洋遥相关型（EAP）角度探究其对持续性极端降水的影响机理,并探讨利用EAP对江淮流域持续性极端降水进行预报的可行性。此外,在上述研究的基础上发展了基于关键影响系统的持续性极端降水的物理统计预报方法。 |
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| Bibliography: | 11-2690/P Persistent extreme precipitation（PEP） results in severe floods in China,especially in the YangtzeHuai River Valley（YHRV）,making it one of the main weather disasters in China.There exists an urgent need to enhance understandings on the formation mechanism and developing rules of PEP and extend forecast valid time of the PEP for the scientific decision of government.In recent years,progress has been achieved from related studies on the formation mechanism and forecast method of PEP in the YHRV which has caught wide attention.The method of automatically identifying regional PEP events is established which is named as RePEEI（Regional Persistent Extreme Event Identifier）.Conceptual model is established on the large-scale circulation patterns responsible for PEP events,revealing that concurrent anomalies of the key influential systems are important causes for the occurrence and maintenance of PEP,and precursor signals（about 1 — 2 weeks prior to the onset of PEP） are investigated.Taking East Asia/Pacific te |
| ISSN: | 1001-7313 |
| DOI: | 10.11898/1001-7313.20160511 |