Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 7; no. 1; p. 11999
• Main Authors: Wen, Xinyu, Liu, Zhengyu, Wang, Shaowu, Cheng, Jun, Zhu, Jiang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 22-06-2016; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/106/35/823; 704/106/413; 704/106/694; Greenhouse gases; Humanities and Social Sciences; Ice sheets; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Wind; East Asia; China
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11999

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection.
Future projection of changes in the East Asia Summer and Winter Monsoon are hindered by a lack of understanding of past variability. Here, using longterm transient simulations, the authors show that the monsoons respond in phase to precessional forcing, yet out of phase millennial-scale North Atlantic forcing.