Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 4455 - 10
• Main Authors: Macgregor, Callum J., Thomas, Chris D., Roy, David B., Beaumont, Mark A., Bell, James R., Brereton, Tom, Bridle, Jon R., Dytham, Calvin, Fox, Richard, Gotthard, Karl, Hoffmann, Ary A., Martin, Geoff, Middlebrook, Ian, Nylin, Sӧren, Platts, Philip J., Rasteiro, Rita, Saccheri, Ilik J., Villoutreix, Romain, Wheat, Christopher W., Hill, Jane K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 24-10-2019; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/1745; 631/158/2165/2457; 631/158/672; Bioindicators; Biomonitoring; Climate change; Emergence; Geographical distribution; Humanities and Social Sciences; Indicator species; multidisciplinary; Phenology; Population growth; Range extension; Reproductive cycle; Reproductive status; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Voltinism
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (
n

=
 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (
n
 = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.
Many species’ life cycles have moved earlier in the year because of climate change, but we do not know the consequences for range expansions. The authors show that these advances promote range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year, but not in species with only one.