Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 50; no. 11-12; pp. 4767 - 4782
• Main Authors: Terada, Mio, Minobe, Shoshiro
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-06-2018; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Climate change; Climate models; Climatology; Data processing; Density; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Forecasts and trends; Geophysics/Geodesy; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Intercomparison; Mean sea level; Migration; Ocean circulation; Oceanography; Sea level; Sea level changes; Sea level rise; Uptake; Water circulation; Water mass formation; Wind stress; Pacific Rim; CMIP5 climate models; Subtropical mode water; Global warming; Western North Pacific; Kuroshio Extension; Dynamic sea level
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3902-8

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.