Do species' traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges?

• Published in: Ecology letters Vol. 14; no. 7; pp. 677 - 689
• Main Authors: Angert, Amy L., Crozier, Lisa G., Rissler, Leslie J., Gilman, Sarah E., Tewksbury, Josh J., Chunco, Amanda J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-07-2011; Blackwell
• Subjects: Adaptation, Physiological; Animal and plant ecology; Animal Migration; Animal reproduction; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Animals; Biological and medical sciences; Birds; Body Size; Climate Change; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Clutch Size; Community ecology; Dispersal; Earth, ocean, space; Ecosystem; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; global climate change; Homing Behavior; life history; Meteorology; Odonata; Passeriformes; Passeriformes - physiology; Plant Development; Plants - anatomy & histology; Population Dynamics; range expansion; Reproduction; Seed Dispersal; Seeds - anatomy & histology; Seeds - physiology; North America; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Modification; Life history; range expansion; Dispersal; Global change; Planetary scale; global climate change; Expansion; Dispersion
• ISSN: 1461-023X; 1461-0248
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01620.x

Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 677–689
Although some organisms have moved to higher elevations and latitudes in response to recent climate change, there is little consensus regarding the capacity of different species to track rapid climate change via range shifts. Understanding species’ abilities to shift ranges has important implications for assessing extinction risk and predicting future community structure. At an expanding front, colonization rates are determined jointly by rates of reproduction and dispersal. In addition, establishment of viable populations requires that individuals find suitable resources in novel habitats. Thus, species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive rate and ecological generalization should be more likely to expand into new regions under climate change. Here, we assess current evidence for the relationship between leading‐edge range shifts and species’ traits. We found expected relationships for several datasets, including diet breadth in North American Passeriformes and egg‐laying habitat in British Odonata. However, models generally had low explanatory power. Thus, even statistically and biologically meaningful relationships are unlikely to be of predictive utility for conservation and management. Trait‐based range shift forecasts face several challenges, including quantifying relevant natural history variation across large numbers of species and coupling these data with extrinsic factors such as habitat fragmentation and availability.