Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine species: range limit implications from a tree-ring study

• Published in: Oecologia Vol. 167; no. 3; pp. 847 - 859
• Main Authors: Linares, Juan Carlos, Tíscar, Pedro Antonio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer 01-11-2011; Springer-Verlag; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Autumn; Biological and medical sciences; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Climate Change; Climate effects; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Drought; Droughts; Earth, ocean, space; Ecology; Ecosystem; Ecosystem structure; Ecosystems; Environmental impact; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Factor analysis; Forest growth; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; GLOBAL CHANGE ECOLOGY; Global change ecology - Original Paper; Global temperature changes; Growth rings; Hot Temperature; Hydrologic data; Hydrology/Water Resources; Life Sciences; Mediterranean Region; Meteorology; Mountain forests; Pine trees; Pinus - anatomy & histology; Pinus - growth & development; Pinus - physiology; Pinus nigra; Plant Sciences; Population Dynamics; Precipitation; Rain; Rain and rainfall; Spain; Time Factors; Toy industry; Tree growth; Trees; Mediterranean Region; Spain; ssp; Dynamic factor analysis; Basal-area increment; Growth decline; Drought; Pinus nigra; Growth; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Basal area; Tree ring; Geographic distribution; Dynamics; Gymnospermae; Softwood forest tree; Coniferales; Spermatophyta; Pinus nigra ssp; salzmannii; Distribution range
• ISSN: 0029-8549; 1432-1939
• DOI: 10.1007/s00442-011-2012-2

Within-range effects of climatic change on tree growth at the sub-regional scale remain poorly understood. The aim of this research was to use climate and radialgrowth data to explain how long-term climatic trends affect tree growth patterns along the southern limit of the range of Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii (Eastern Baetic Range, southern Spain). We used regional temperature and precipitation data and measured sub-regional radial growth variation in P. nigra forests over the past two centuries. A dynamic factor analysis was applied to test the hypothesis that trees subjected to different climates have experienced contrasting long-term growth variability. We defined four representative stand types based on average temperature and precipitation to evaluate climate-growth relationships using linear mixed-effect models and multi-model selection criteria. All four stand types experienced warming and declining precipitation throughout the twentieth century. From the onset of the twentieth century, synchronised basal-area increment decline was accounted for by dynamic factor analysis and was related to drought by climate-growth models; declining basal-area increment trends proved stronger at lower elevations, whereas temperature was positively related to growth in areas with high rainfall inputs. Given the contrasting sub-regional treegrowth responses to climate change, the role of drought becomes even more complex in shaping communities and affecting selection pressure in the Mediterranean mountain forests. Potential vegetation shifts will likely occur over the dry edge of species distributions, with major impacts on ecosystem structure and function.