A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period

• Published in: Infectious disease modelling Vol. 5; pp. 323 - 337
• Main Authors: Liu, Z., Magal, P., Seydi, O., Webb, G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: China Elsevier B.V 01-01-2020; KeAi Communications Co. Ltd; KeAi Publishing; KeAi Communications Co., Ltd
• Subjects: Corona virus; Epidemic mathematical model; Isolation; Mathematics; Public closings; Quarantine; Reported and unreported cases; Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu; Statistics; Corona virus; Quarantine; Isolation; Reported and unreported cases; Public closings; Epidemic mathematical model
• ISSN: 2468-0427; 2468-2152; 2468-0427
• DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.003

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop two differential equations models to account for this period. The first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class, before transmission is possible. The second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons, before transmission is possible. We apply both models to the COVID-19 epidemic in China. We estimate the epidemiological parameters in the models, such as the transmission rate and the basic reproductive number, using data of reported cases. We thus evaluate the role of the exposed or latency period in the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic.