Methodology of the sensitivity analysis used for modeling an infectious disease

• Published in: Vaccine Vol. 28; no. 51; pp. 8132 - 8140
• Main Authors: Okaïs, Claire, Roche, Sylvain, Kürzinger, Marie-Laure, Riche, Benjamin, Bricout, Hélène, Derrough, Tarik, Simondon, François, Ecochard, René
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 29-11-2010; Elsevier; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Allergy and Immunology; Applied microbiology; Biological and medical sciences; Chickenpox - epidemiology; Chickenpox - transmission; Child; Child, Preschool; Communicable Diseases - epidemiology; Communicable Diseases - transmission; Disease transmission; Epidemiologic Methods; Female; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Herpes Zoster - epidemiology; Herpes Zoster - transmission; Humans; Incidence; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Infectious disease; Infectious diseases; Life Sciences; Male; Mathematical models; Microbiology; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Mortality; Other; Sensitivity analysis; Vaccines, antisera, therapeutical immunoglobulins and monoclonal antibodies (general aspects); Young Adult; Infectious disease; Mathematical models; Sensitivity analysis; Infection; Sensitivity; Mathematical model; Modeling
• ISSN: 0264-410X; 1873-2518; 0264-410X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.09.099

Abstract Mathematical models may be used to help clarify dynamics of several infectious diseases. Because of the complexity of some models and the high degree of uncertainty in estimating many parameters, the present study proposes a rigorous framework for sensitivity analyses of mathematical models using as example a model to assess varicella and herpes zoster incidence. Its main steps are to assess the uncertainty of the factors to be studied, to evaluate qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of these factors on model results, and to conduct an univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis. The application of this technique may have considerable utility in the analysis of a wide variety of complex biological and epidemiological models.