Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 10; no. 1; p. 136
• Main Authors: Russo, Simone, Sillmann, Jana, Sippel, Sebastian, Barcikowska, Monika J., Ghisetti, Claudia, Smid, Marek, O’Neill, Brian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 11-01-2019; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/106; 704/4111; 704/844; Climate; Climate change; Exposure; Global Warming; Heat; Hot Temperature - adverse effects; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Infrared Rays - adverse effects; multidisciplinary; Population density; Population growth; Probability; Risk; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Social Change; Society; Socioeconomic Factors; Values
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4

While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development.
Climate extremes, exposure and vulnerability all contribute to global difference in heatwave risk. Here the authors investigated the inequality in global heatwave risk under both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios and found that heatwave risk for the poor under 1.5 °C scenario exceeds that risk for the rich under 2 °C scenario.