Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production

• Published in: Nature sustainability Vol. 2; no. 6; pp. 445 - 456
• Main Authors: Rohr, Jason R., Barrett, Christopher B., Civitello, David J., Craft, Meggan E., Delius, Bryan, DeLeo, Giulio A., Hudson, Peter J., Jouanard, Nicolas, Nguyen, Karena H., Ostfeld, Richard S., Remais, Justin V., Riveau, Gilles, Sokolow, Susanne H., Tilman, David
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 2019; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 631/158/1469; 692/499; 692/699; 706/1143; 706/134; Agricultural expansion; Animal production; Antibiotics; Crop production; Domestic animals; Earth and Environmental Science; Economic development; Environment; Food; Food production; Infectious diseases; Pesticides; Population growth; Public health; Review; Review Article; Sustainable Development; Ecological epidemiology; Agriculture; Developing world; Risk factors; Diseases
• ISSN: 2398-9629; 2398-9629
• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0293-3

Infectious diseases are emerging globally at an unprecedented rate while global food demand is projected to increase sharply by 2100. Here, we synthesize the pathways by which projected agricultural expansion and intensification will influence human infectious diseases and how human infectious diseases might likewise affect food production and distribution. Feeding 11 billion people will require substantial increases in crop and animal production that will expand agricultural use of antibiotics, water, pesticides and fertilizer, and contact rates between humans and both wild and domestic animals, all with consequences for the emergence and spread of infectious agents. Indeed, our synthesis of the literature suggests that, since 1940, agricultural drivers were associated with >25% of all — and >50% of zoonotic — infectious diseases that emerged in humans, proportions that will likely increase as agriculture expands and intensifies. We identify agricultural and disease management and policy actions, and additional research, needed to address the public health challenge posed by feeding 11 billion people.
Population growth and economic development affect and are affected by infectious diseases and food production. This Review synthesizes understanding about the links between emerging infectious diseases and food production, finding strong associations worldwide.