Distinguishing moral hazard from access for high-cost healthcare under insurance

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 15; no. 4; p. e0231768
• Main Authors: Robertson, Christopher T, Yuan, Andy, Zhang, Wendan, Joiner, Keith
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 17-04-2020; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Beneficiaries; Consumption; Cost control; Demographics; Demography; Economics; Economists; Engineering and Technology; Health care; Health care access; Health care expenditures; Health insurance; Health policy; Indemnity; Insurance coverage; Insurance policies; Market prices; Medical research; Medicine and Health Sciences; Moral hazard; Opportunity costs; Social Sciences; Uninsured people; United States > US; Arizona
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231768

Health policy has long been preoccupied with the problem that health insurance stimulates spending ("moral hazard"). However, much health spending is costly healthcare that uninsured individuals could not otherwise access. Field studies comparing those with more or less insurance cannot disaggregate moral hazard versus access. Moreover, studies of patients consuming routine low-dollar healthcare are not informative for the high-dollar healthcare that drives most of aggregate healthcare spending in the United States.
We test indemnities as an alternative theory-driven counterfactual. Such conditional cash transfers would maintain an opportunity cost for patients, unlike standard insurance, but also guarantee access to the care. Since indemnities do not exist in U.S. healthcare, we fielded two blinded vignette-based survey experiments with 3,000 respondents, randomized to eight clinical vignettes and three insurance types. Our replication uses a population that is weighted to national demographics on three dimensions.
Most or all of the spending due to insurance would occur even under an indemnity. The waste attributable to moral hazard is undetectable.
For high-cost care, policymakers should be more concerned about the foregone efficient spending for those lacking full insurance, rather than the wasteful spending that occurs with full insurance.