Performance of forecasting, warning and detection of malaria epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya

• Published in: Trends in parasitology Vol. 19; no. 9; pp. 394 - 399
• Main Authors: Hay, Simon, Renshaw, Melanie, Ochola, Sam A., Noor, Abdisalan M., Snow, Robert W.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01-09-2003; Elsevier
• Subjects: Animals; Biological and medical sciences; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control; Forecasting; Human protozoal diseases; Humans; Infectious diseases; Information Dissemination - methods; Kenya - epidemiology; Malaria; Malaria - diagnosis; Malaria - epidemiology; Medical sciences; Parasitic diseases; Protozoal diseases; Rain; Retrospective Studies; Risk Management - methods; Seasons; Tropical medicine; Kenya; Africa; Epidemic; Human; Protozoa; Host parasite relation; Apicomplexa; Protozoal disease; Prevalence; Malaria; Environmental factor; Parasitosis; Pluviometry; Forecasting; Infection; Plasmodium; Efficiency; Seasonal variation; Parasitism; Detection
• ISSN: 1471-4922; 1471-5007
• DOI: 10.1016/S1471-4922(03)00190-9

On the 4th July 2002 a leading national newspaper in Kenya, the
Daily Nation, ran the headline ‘
Minister sounds alert on malaria’ in an article declaring the onset of epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya. There followed frequent media coverage with quotes from district leaders on the numbers of deaths, and editorials on the failure of the national malaria control strategy. The Ministry of Health made immediate and radical changes to national policy on treatment costs in the highlands by suspending cost-sharing. Development partners and non-governmental organisations also responded with a large increase in the distribution of commodities (approximately US$ 500 000) to support preventative strategies across the western highland region. What was conspicuous by its absence was any obvious effort to predict the epidemics in advance of press coverage.