Can Egypt become self-sufficient in wheat?

• Published in: Environmental research letters Vol. 13; no. 9; pp. 94012 - 94022
• Main Authors: Asseng, Senthold, Kheir, Ahmed M S, Kassie, Belay T, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Abdelaal, Aly I N, Haman, Dorota Z, Ruane, Alex C
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Goddard Space Flight Center IOP Publishing 2018; IOP Science
• Subjects: adaptation; Agricultural production; Atmospheric models; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; climate change impact; Climate models; Crop growth; Crop yield; Crops; Earth Resources And Remote Sensing; food security; Imports; Irrigated lands; Irrigation; Irrigation efficiency; Irrigation water; Leaching; New technology; Population growth; Self sufficiency; water demand; Wheat; Egypt
• ISSN: 1748-9326; 1748-9326
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aada50

Egypt produces half of the 20 million tons of wheat that it consumes with irrigation and imports the other half. Egypt is also the world's largest importer of wheat. The population of Egypt is currently growing at 2.2% annually, and projections indicate that the demand for wheat will triple by the end of the century. Combining multi-crop and -climate models for different climate change scenarios with recent trends in technology, we estimated that future wheat yield will decline mostly from climate change, despite some yield improvements from new technologies. The growth stimulus from elevated atmospheric CO2 will be overtaken by the negative impact of rising temperatures on crop growth and yield. An ongoing program to double the irrigated land area by 2035 in parallel with crop intensification could increase wheat production and make Egypt self-sufficient in the near future, but would be insufficient after 2040s, even with modest population growth. Additionally, the demand for irrigation will increase from 6 to 20 billion m3 for the expanded wheat production, but even more water is needed to account for irrigation efficiency and salt leaching (to a total of up to 29 billion m3). Supplying water for future irrigation and producing sufficient grain will remain challenges for Egypt.