Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 110; no. 21; pp. 8357 - 8362
• Main Authors: Vermeulen, Sonja J., Challinor, Andrew J., Thornton, Philip K., Campbell, Bruce M., Eriyagama, Nishadi, Vervoort, Joost M., Kinyangi, James, Jarvis, Andy, Läderach, Peter, Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, Nicklin, Kathryn J., Hawkins, Ed, Smith, Daniel R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC National Academy of Sciences 21-05-2013; National Acad Sciences
• Subjects: AGRICULTURAL INNOVATION TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT SPECIAL FEATURE; Agriculture; Agriculture - economics; Agriculture - methods; Agriculture - trends; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Climate change policy; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Computer Simulation; Crops; Crops, Agricultural - economics; Crops, Agricultural - growth & development; Decision making; Developing countries; Developing Countries - economics; Earth, ocean, space; Emissions control; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Food crops; Food security; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agroecology; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping; General agronomy. Plant production; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development; Greenhouse gases; Human physiology applied to population studies and life conditions. Human ecophysiology; LDCs; Medical sciences; Meteorology; Nutritional survey. Food supply and nutritional requirement; Planning Techniques; Simulation; Social Sciences; Socioeconomics; Sustainable agriculture; Uncertainty; Sri Lanka; Eastern Africa; Latin America; East Africa; Policy; Uncertainty; Developing countries; Vulnerability; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; future scenarios; Food security; Global change; Agriculture; Planning; Food supply; Adaptation; vulnerability; food security; climate change; policy
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1219441110

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.