The quantity-quality transition in the value of expanding wind and solar power generation

• Published in: iScience Vol. 25; no. 4; p. 104140
• Main Authors: Antonini, Enrico G.A., Ruggles, Tyler H., Farnham, David J., Caldeira, Ken
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Inc 15-04-2022; Elsevier
• Subjects: Energy flexibility; Energy policy; Energy resources; Energy sustainability; Energy policy; Energy sustainability; Energy flexibility; Energy resources
• ISSN: 2589-0042; 2589-0042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104140

Wind and solar photovoltaic generators are projected to play important roles in achieving a net-zero-carbon electricity system that meets current and future energy needs. Here, we show potential advantages of long-term site planning of wind and solar power plants in deeply decarbonized electricity systems using a macro-scale energy model. With weak carbon emission constraints and substantial amounts of flexible electricity sources on the grid (e.g., dispatchable power), relatively high value is placed on sites with high capacity factors because the added wind or solar capacity can efficiently substitute for running natural gas power plants. With strict carbon emission constraints, relatively high value is placed on sites with high correlation with residual demand because resource complementarity can efficiently compensate for lower system flexibility. Our results suggest that decisions regarding long-term wind and solar farm siting may benefit from consideration of the spatial and temporal evolution of mismatches in electricity demand and generation capacity.
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•We show potential advantages of long-term planning of wind and solar power plants•In weak decarbonization, wind and solar resource quantity governs site decisions•In deep decarbonization, optimal sites have higher correlation with residual demand•Siting decisions made with foresight can lead to more efficient asset allocation
Energy resources; Energy policy; Energy sustainability; Energy flexibility