Increasing Health Risks During Outdoor Sports Due To Climate Change in Texas: Projections Versus Attitudes

• Published in: Geohealth Vol. 6; no. 8; pp. e2022GH000595 - n/a
• Main Authors: Dee, Sylvia G., Nabizadeh, Ebrahim, Nittrouer, Christine L., Baldwin, Jane W., Li, Chelsea, Gaviria, Lizzy, Guo, Selena, Lu, Karen, Saunders‐Shultz, Beck Miguel, Gurwitz, Emily, Samarth, Gargi, Weinberger, Kate R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-08-2022; John Wiley and Sons Inc; American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• Subjects: 21st century; Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change; Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes; Air/Sea Interactions; Athletes; Athletic directors; Atmospheric; Atmospheric Composition and Structure; Atmospheric Effects; Atmospheric Processes; Attitudes; Avalanches; Benefit‐cost Analysis; Biogeosciences; Climate and Interannual Variability; Climate change; Climate Change and Variability; Climate Dynamics; Climate effects; Climate Impact; Climate Impacts; Climate Variability; Climatology; Coaches & managers; College football; Computational Geophysics; Cryosphere; Decadal Ocean Variability; Disaster Risk Analysis and Assessment; Earth System Modeling; Earthquake Ground Motions and Engineering Seismology; Education; Effusive Volcanism; exertional heat illness; Explosive Volcanism; Extreme heat; extreme heat in Texas; General Circulation; General circulation models; Geodesy and Gravity; Geohealth; Geological; Global Change; Global Change from Geodesy; Global Climate Models; Gravity and Isostasy; Health risk assessment; Health risks; Heat; Heatstroke; human health; Humidity; Hydrological Cycles and Budgets; Hydrology; Hypotheses; Impacts of Climate Change: Human Health; Impacts of Global Change; Informatics; Land/Atmosphere Interactions; Marine Geology and Geophysics; Mass Balance; Metropolitan areas; Modeling; Mud Volcanism; Natural Hazards; Numerical Modeling; Numerical Solutions; Ocean influence of Earth rotation; Ocean Monitoring with Geodetic Techniques; Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions; Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions; Oceanic; Oceanography: General; Oceanography: Physical; Oceans; Paleoceanography; Physical Modeling; Policy Sciences; Public Health; Radio Oceanography; Radio Science; Regional Climate Change; Regional Modeling; Risk; Sea Level Change; Sea Level: Variations and Mean; Seismology; Solid Earth; student athletes; Surface Waves and Tides; Teacher Training; Theoretical Modeling; Trends; Tsunamis and Storm Surges; Volcanic Effects; Volcanic Hazards and Risks; Volcano Monitoring; Volcano Seismology; Volcano/Climate Interactions; Volcanology; Water Cycles; wet bulb temperature; United States > US; Texas; extreme heat in Texas; student athletes; wet bulb temperature; exertional heat illness; human health; climate change
• ISSN: 2471-1403; 2471-1403
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GH000595

Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high‐school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid‐to‐late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat‐related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.
Plain Language Summary
Heat extremes are dangerous for humans, and anthropogenic climate change is making extreme heat events more frequent over time. Future changes in extreme heat may prove particularly dangerous to athletes who participate in outdoor sports, as they are susceptible to exertional heat illness (EHI). This study was spearheaded by a team of undergraduate students at Rice University who were interested in how extreme heat events might impact athletics across the state of Texas. We surveyed hundreds of athletic staff at Texas colleges and high schools to assess their awareness of future heat risks to student athlete health. We compared survey results to climate model projections of summer temperatures and indices like heat index and wet bulb temperatures (variables which consider humidity as well as temperature) across Texas throughout the next century. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what the National Weather Service considers safe for outdoor sports by the mid‐21st century. Despite the clear trend toward increasingly dangerous hot weather conditions, some athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health. Climate change communication is needed to initiate changes to athletic programs and reduce the risk of EHIs for athletes in Texas.
Key Points
This study examines projected trends in extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century from Community Earth System Model version 2 alongside a survey of athletic staff
Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid‐to‐late 21st century
While most athletic staff acknowledge the need for changes to prevent heat‐related illness in student athletes, a smaller portion still do not