Modeling the Water Systems of the Western US to Support Climate‐Resilient Electricity System Planning

• Published in: Earth's future Vol. 12; no. 1
• Main Authors: Yates, D., Szinai, J. K., Jones, A. D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-01-2024; Wiley
• Subjects: Climate change; Climate models; Decarbonization; Electricity; Electricity generation; energy; Energy modeling; Groundwater; Hydroelectric power; Hydroelectric power generation; Hydrologic cycle; Hydrology; multi‐sector dynamics; Nexus; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Summer; Supply & demand; Surface water; water; Water distribution; Water shortages; Water supply; Water treatment; United States > US; North America; California
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003220

Electricity and water systems in the Western US (WUS) are closely connected, with hydropower comprising 20% of total annual WUS generation, and electricity related to water comprising about 7% of total WUS electricity use. Because of these interdependencies, the threat of climate change to WUS resources will likely have compounding electricity impacts on the Western Interconnect grid. This study describes a WUS‐wide water system model with a particular emphasis on estimating climate impacts on hydropower generation and water‐related electricity use, which can be linked with a grid expansion model to support climate‐resilient electricity planning. The water system model combines climatically‐driven physical hydrology and management of both water supply and demand allocation, and is applied to an ensemble of 15 climate scenarios out to 2050. Model results show decreasing streamflow in key basins of the WUS under most scenarios. Annual water‐related electricity use increases up to 4%, and by up to 6% during the summer months, driven by growing agricultural demands met increasingly through a shift toward energy‐intensive groundwater to replace declining surface water. Total annual hydropower generation changes by +5% to −20% by mid‐century but declines in most scenarios, with decreases in summer generation by up to nearly −30%. Water‐related electricity use increases tend to coincide with hydropower generation declines, annually and seasonally, demonstrating the importance of concurrently evaluating the climate signal on both water‐for‐energy and energy‐for‐water to inform planning for grid reliability and decarbonization goals.
Plain Language Summary
Electricity and water systems in the Western United States (WUS) have a strong dependency. Water fuels hydropower generation and electricity is used to pump, transport, treat, heat, and dispose of water. Climate change poses a serious threat to water availability in the WUS and is likely to also affect hydropower generation and electricity use related to water. This study develops a WUS water system model to evaluate the impact of a set of climate change scenarios on the dynamic interplay between water availability and demand and hydropower generation and electricity use by the water sector by 2050. We find that in many key basins, streamflow decreases under the climate scenarios. At the same time, reliance on groundwater increases to meet growing agricultural water demand. Hydropower generation shows decreases in most cases while energy use related to water increases. Because these hydropower generation declines tend to occur during periods when electricity demand for water grows, electricity grid planners in the Western Interconnect will benefit from this type of study by informing future grid buildouts that maintain reliability and decarbonization goals.
Key Points
Interactions among hydro‐climate, hydropower, and water's energy use are critical for evaluating Western US (WUS) water‐energy climate risks
Under climate change, our WUS water model finds declining streamflows, growing agricultural demands, and increased groundwater use
With warming and drying, water‐related energy use grows while hydropower generation decreases under most climate scenarios by mid‐century