Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 369; no. 6501; pp. 315 - 319
• Main Authors: Baker, Rachel E, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Metcalf, C Jessica E, Grenfell, Bryan T
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 17-07-2020; American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Betacoronavirus; Biology; Climate; Climate change; Computer Simulation; Coronaviridae; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - transmission; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Depletion; Disease Susceptibility; Disease transmission; Epidemic models; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Geographical variations; Humans; Humid climates; Humidity; Models, Theoretical; Northern Hemisphere; Outbreaks; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - transmission; Respiratory diseases; SARS-CoV-2; Seasons; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Summer; Viral diseases; Weather
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abc2535

Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.