Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic

• Published in: Communications medicine Vol. 2; no. 1; p. 14
• Main Authors: Olivera Mesa, Daniela, Hogan, Alexandra B., Watson, Oliver J., Charles, Giovanni D., Hauck, Katharina, Ghani, Azra C., Winskill, Peter
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 10-02-2022; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/250/590; 692/699/255; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Infectious diseases; Vaccines
• ISSN: 2730-664X; 2730-664X
• DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x

Background
Vaccine hesitancy – a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability – has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. In this study, we aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods
We modelled the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys.
Results
Our simulations suggest that the mortality over a 2-year period could be up to 7.6 times higher in countries with high vaccine hesitancy compared to an ideal vaccination uptake if NPIs are relaxed. Alternatively, high vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for NPIs to remain in place.
Conclusions
While vaccination is an individual choice, vaccine-hesitant individuals have a substantial impact on the pandemic trajectory, which may challenge current efforts to control COVID-19. In order to prevent such outcomes, addressing vaccine hesitancy with behavioural interventions is an important priority in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Plain language summary
People refusing or delaying COVID-19 vaccination might impact current efforts to control the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. Here, we have examined the effects of low vaccine uptake due to vaccine hesitancy on the need to prolong other public health measures to control the pandemic. We used mathematical modelling and data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys across different countries. Our results suggest that when there is vaccine hesitancy and relaxation of other public health measures, mortality could increase by up to seven times compared with ideal vaccination coverage of the population. Furthermore, for some scenarios analysed, longer and more stringent public health measures would be required to compensate for lower vaccine uptake. Our work demonstrates that vaccine hesitancy might have a substantial health impact on the population, and therefore, it is a public health priority to increase trust in vaccines.
Olivera Mesa et al. model the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the COVID-19 pandemic. They show that vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for NPIs to remain in place and lead to increased mortality if NPIs are relaxed.