The strategy of protest against Covid‐19 containment policies in Germany

• Published in: Social science quarterly Vol. 102; no. 5; pp. 2236 - 2250
• Main Authors: Plümper, Thomas, Neumayer, Eric, Pfaff, Katharina Gabriela
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-09-2021; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Containment; containment policies; COVID-19; Demonstrations & protests; Districts; Epidemiology; Mobilization; Mortality rates; Original; Political parties; protest; SARS‐CoV‐2; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; Special Issue; Voting; Germany; Covid‐19; protest; mobilization; SARS‐CoV‐2; containment policies
• ISSN: 0038-4941; 1540-6237
• DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13066

Objectives
The article analyzes the epidemiological and political logics of protest against containment policies in Germany. To maximize the mobilization potential, protest organizers organize more protest events when Covid‐19 mortality rates are low, the stringency of containment policies is high, and in districts in which the vote share of mainstream parties is traditionally low.
Method
Using a negative binomial model, we analyze the number of protest events in a sample of 401 German districts over the period from March to May 2020.
Results
We find robust positive predicted effects of the stringency of containment policies and negative predicted effects for the mortality rate and the strengths of mainstream parties.
Conclusion
We interpret these findings as evidence of the strategic behavior of protest organizers that target protest participation and mobilization to keep the movement alive and potentially grow it.