On the Effect of Bias Estimation on Coverage Accuracy in Nonparametric Inference

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 113; no. 522; pp. 767 - 779
• Main Authors: Calonico, Sebastian, Cattaneo, Matias D., Farrell, Max H.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Alexandria Taylor & Francis 03-04-2018; Taylor & Francis Group,LLC; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Accuracy; Bandwidths; Bias; Confidence intervals; Coverage error; Decay rate; Density; Edgeworth expansion; Error correction; Inference; Kernel methods; Kernels; Local polynomial regression; Nonparametric statistics; Parameter sensitivity; Polynomials; Regression analysis; Robustness; Selectors; Smoothness; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Statistics; Theory and Methods; Tuning
• ISSN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2017.1285776

Nonparametric methods play a central role in modern empirical work. While they provide inference procedures that are more robust to parametric misspecification bias, they may be quite sensitive to tuning parameter choices. We study the effects of bias correction on confidence interval coverage in the context of kernel density and local polynomial regression estimation, and prove that bias correction can be preferred to undersmoothing for minimizing coverage error and increasing robustness to tuning parameter choice. This is achieved using a novel, yet simple, Studentization, which leads to a new way of constructing kernel-based bias-corrected confidence intervals. In addition, for practical cases, we derive coverage error optimal bandwidths and discuss easy-to-implement bandwidth selectors. For interior points, we show that the mean-squared error (MSE)-optimal bandwidth for the original point estimator (before bias correction) delivers the fastest coverage error decay rate after bias correction when second-order (equivalent) kernels are employed, but is otherwise suboptimal because it is too "large." Finally, for odd-degree local polynomial regression, we show that, as with point estimation, coverage error adapts to boundary points automatically when appropriate Studentization is used; however, the MSE-optimal bandwidth for the original point estimator is suboptimal. All the results are established using valid Edgeworth expansions and illustrated with simulated data. Our findings have important consequences for empirical work as they indicate that bias-corrected confidence intervals, coupled with appropriate standard errors, have smaller coverage error and are less sensitive to tuning parameter choices in practically relevant cases where additional smoothness is available. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.