Impact of a potential 21st century "grand solar minimum" on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 40; no. 16; pp. 4420 - 4425
• Main Authors: Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W. K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 28-08-2013; American Geophysical Union; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: 21st century; Atmospheric chemistry; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; erythemal; Exact sciences and technology; Geophysics; Global climate; Global warming; grand solar minimum; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Ozone; Ozone layer; Panels; Solar activity; Strength; Surface temperature; total ozone column; Ultraviolet radiation; atmosphere; Ensemble simulation; Century 21st; Minimum solar activity; strength; ultraviolet rays; solar radiation; Surface temperature; Climate models; global; protection; climate; recovery; ozone; lead; greenhouse gas; Earth; solar activity; warming; Forcing; Ozone layer; stratosphere; climate change
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1002/grl.50806

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere‐ocean chemistry‐climate model AOCCM SOCOL3‐MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.
Key Points
A future grand solar minimum will modify the global ozone distribution
A future grand solar minimum will have an impact on the rate of global warming
Strength and duration of a future grand solar minimum are highly uncertain