Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 317; no. 5839; pp. 796 - 799
• Main Authors: Smith, Doug M, Cusack, Stephen, Colman, Andrew W, Folland, Chris K, Harris, Glen R, Murphy, James M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Association for the Advancement of Science 10-08-2007; The American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Climate change; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Global climate models; Global warming; Meteorology; Modeling; Oceans; Predictions; Surface temperature; Temperature; Time series forecasting; Volcanic eruptions; Weather forecasting; Century 21st; Initial condition; Surface temperature; Climate models; Forecast model; Dynamical climatology; climate modification; Atmospheric temperature; Climate variability; global change; Forecast skill; warming; Forcing; Anthropogenic factor
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.1139540

Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.