Predicting Surgical Complications in Adult Patients Undergoing Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion Using Machine Learning

• Published in: Neurospine Vol. 15; no. 4; pp. 329 - 337
• Main Authors: Arvind, Varun, Kim, Jun S., Oermann, Eric K., Kaji, Deepak, Cho, Samuel K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Korean Spinal Neurosurgery Society 01-12-2018; 대한척추신경외과학회
• Subjects: Anterior cervical discectomy and fusion; Complications; Machine Learning; Original; Predicting; Spine; 신경외과학
• ISSN: 2586-6583; 2586-6591
• DOI: 10.14245/ns.1836248.124

Objective Machine learning algorithms excel at leveraging big data to identify complex patterns that can be used to aid in clinical decision-making. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the performance of machine learning models in predicting postoperative complications following anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). Methods Artificial neural network (ANN), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest decision tree (RF) models were trained on a multicenter data set of patients undergoing ACDF to predict surgical complications based on readily available patient data. Following training, these models were compared to the predictive capability of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification. Results A total of 20,879 patients were identified as having undergone ACDF. Following exclusion criteria, patients were divided into 14,615 patients for training and 6,264 for testing data sets. ANN and LR consistently outperformed ASA physical status classification in predicting every complication (p < 0.05). The ANN outperformed LR in predicting venous thromboembolism, wound complication, and mortality (p < 0.05). The SVM and RF models were no better than random chance at predicting any of the postoperative complications (p < 0.05). Conclusion ANN and LR algorithms outperform ASA physical status classification for predicting individual postoperative complications. Additionally, neural networks have greater sensitivity than LR when predicting mortality and wound complications. With the growing size of medical data, the training of machine learning on these large datasets promises to improve risk prognostication, with the ability of continuously learning making them excellent tools in complex clinical scenarios.