Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products

• Published in: Hydrology and earth system sciences Vol. 22; no. 9; pp. 5041 - 5056
• Main Authors: Delgado, Jose Miguel, Voss, Sebastian, Burger, Gerd, Vormoor, Klaus, Murawski, Aline, Rodrigues Pereira, Jose Marcelo, Martins, Eduardo, Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco, Francke, Till
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 28-09-2018; Copernicus Publications
• Subjects: Analysis; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric precipitations; Drought; Drought forecasting; Drought index; Empirical analysis; Ensemble forecasting; False alarms; Forecasting; Hydrologic drought; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Hydrometeorology; Lead time; Meteorology; Monthly precipitation; Precipitation; Rainfall; Rainy season; Regression analysis; Rivers; Root-mean-square errors; Seasonal forecasting; Seasons; Systems analysis; Temporal variations; Water management; Weather forecasting; Wet season; Brazil
• ISSN: 1607-7938; 1027-5606; 1607-7938
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018

A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará's research foundation for meteorology) and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation, (b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices.