Exceptional pattern of extreme rainfall variability at urban centre of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

• Published in: Urban water journal Vol. 11; no. 7; pp. 596 - 604
• Main Authors: Moges, S.A., Taye, M.T., Willems, P., Gebremichael, M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 01-01-2014; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Addis Ababa; extreme rainfall variability; Extreme weather; Global climate; Marine; Meteorology; Observatories; Oscillations; Perturbation methods; Rainfall; Southern Oscillation; Stations; Trends; Urbanization; Ethiopia; IS, Pacific
• ISSN: 1573-062X; 1744-9006
• DOI: 10.1080/1573062X.2013.831914

This paper examines the long-term historical changes in frequency and amplitude of rainfall extremes in two very close stations of Addis Ababa, the Addis Ababa Observatory (AAO) and Addis Ababa Bole (AAB) records including some surrounding measurements using the second half of 20
th
century data. The method used to examine trends and oscillatory patterns is the quantile perturbation method, especially designed for extreme conditions. The result shows that the Addis Ababa Observatory (AAO) shows an exceptionally increasing trend in its extreme events while the rest of the stations show an oscillating pattern. Exceptional behaviour at AAO is also noticed from unique global climatic indices. Both Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation Index are opposed to other stations. A possible reason for the increasing trend is linked with the growing urbanization that has been occurring in Addis Ababa city in the past decades. Nevertheless the variability of AAO rainfall extremes is within the uncertainty range that indicates natural variability. Although the change may not be severe at present, it is important to note the increasing trend to avoid serious consequences in the future.