Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico under climate change conditions

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 116; no. 1-2; pp. 211 - 225
• Main Authors: García-Cueto, O. Rafael, Cavazos, M. Tereza, de Grau, Pamela, Santillán-Soto, Néstor
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer-Verlag 01-04-2014; Springer Vienna; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Analysis; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Cities; Climate change; Climatic conditions; Climatology; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; General Circulation Models; Global temperature changes; Meteorology; Original Paper; Statistical models; temperature; Temperature distribution; Temperature effects; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Mexico; Baja California Mexico; Mexico, Baja California, Ensenada; Mexico, Baja California, Tijuana; Return Level; Heat Wave; Generalize Extreme Value; Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase; Generalize Extreme Value Distribution; time series analysis; trend-surface analysis; Atmospheric temperature; extreme value; statistical distribution; 2000-2010; 1950-2000; Minimum temperature; Maximum temperature; urban areas; North America; climate change
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-013-0933-x

The generalized extreme value distribution is applied in this article to model the statistical behavior of the maximum and minimum temperature distribution tails in four cities of Baja California in northwestern Mexico, using data from 1950–2010. The approach used of the maximum of annual time blocks. Temporal trends were included as covariates in the location parameter (μ), which resulted in significant improvements to the proposed models, particularly for the extreme maximum temperature values in the cities of Mexicali, Tijuana, and Tecate, and the extreme minimum temperature values in Mexicali and Ensenada. These models were used to estimate future probabilities over the next 100 years (2015–2110) for different time periods, and they were compared with changes in the extreme (P90th and P10th) percentiles of maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for a set of six general circulation models under low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiative forcings. By the end of the twenty-first century, the scenarios of the changes in extreme maximum summer temperature are of the same order in both the statistical model and the high radiative scenario (increases of 4–5 °C). The low radiative scenario is more conservative (increases of 2–3 °C). The winter scenario shows that minimum temperatures could be less severe; the temperature increases suggested by the probabilistic model are greater than those projected for the end of the century by the set of global models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The likely impacts on the region are discussed.