Simulating Hunting Effects on the Wild Boar Population and African Swine Fever Expansion Using Agent-Based Modeling

• Published in: Animals (Basel) Vol. 13; no. 2; p. 298
• Main Authors: Ko, Chanwoo, Cho, Wonhee, Hwang, Byungmook, Chang, Byungwoo, Kang, Wanmo, Ko, Dongwook W
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 14-01-2023; MDPI
• Subjects: ABM; African swine fever; Agent-based models; ASF; Asfarviridae; control strategies; Domestic animals; Fever; Foraging behavior; Habitats; Hemorrhage; Hemorrhagic fever; Hogs; Hunting; Infectious diseases; Modelling; Mortality; Precipitation; Reagents; Rivers; Simulation; South Korea; Suidae; Swine; Swine production; Topography; wild boars; Wildlife; Wildlife management; South Korea; Europe; Han River; wild boars; South Korea; ASF; ABM; hunting; control strategies
• ISSN: 2076-2615; 2076-2615
• DOI: 10.3390/ani13020298

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic fever fatal to animals of the Suidae family. It has spread from Africa to Europe and Asia, causing significant damage to wildlife and domesticated pig production. Since the first confirmed case in South Korea in September 2019, the number of infected wild boars has continued to increase, despite quarantine fences and hunting operations. Hence, new strategies are needed for the effective control of ASF. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate the ASF expansion area and the efficacy of infection control strategies. In addition, we simulated the agents' (wild boars) behavior and daily movement range based on their ecological and behavioral characteristics, by applying annual hunting scenarios from past three years (2019.09-2022.08). The results of the simulation based on the annual changes in the number of infected agents and the ASF expansion area showed that the higher the hunting intensity, the smaller the expansion area (24,987 km
at 0% vs. 3533 km
at 70%); a hunting intensity exceeding 70% minimally affected the expansion area. A complete removal of agents during the simulation period was shown to be possible. In conclusion, an annual hunting intensity of 70% should be maintained to effectively control ASF.