An SEQAIHR model to study COVID-19 transmission and optimal control strategies in Hong Kong, 2022

• Published in: Nonlinear dynamics Vol. 111; no. 7; pp. 6873 - 6893
• Main Authors: Saha, Pritam, Biswas, Sudhanshu Kumar, Biswas, Md. Haider Ali, Ghosh, Uttam
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01-04-2023; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Automotive Engineering; Bifurcations; Classical Mechanics; Control; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Disease transmission; Dynamical Systems; Emergency medical services; Engineering; Health services; Mathematical models; Mechanical Engineering; Optimal control; Original Paper; Parameter sensitivity; Reproduction (biology); Sensitivity analysis; Vibration; Hong Kong China; China; Parameter estimation; Backward bifurcation; Optimal control; Effective reproduction number; Forward bifurcation with hysteresis
• ISSN: 0924-090X; 1573-269X
• DOI: 10.1007/s11071-022-08181-0

During the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the major concerns was a medical emergency in human society. Therefore it was necessary to control or restrict the disease spreading among populations in any fruitful way at that time. To frame out a proper policy for controlling COVID-19 spreading with limited medical facilities, here we propose an
SEQAIHR
model having saturated treatment. We check biological feasibility of model solutions and compute the basic reproduction number (
R
0
). Moreover, the model exhibits transcritical, backward bifurcation and forward bifurcation with hysteresis with respect to different parameters under some restrictions. Further to validate the model, we fit it with real COVID-19 infected data of Hong Kong from 19th December, 2021 to 3rd April, 2022 and estimate model parameters. Applying sensitivity analysis, we find out the most sensitive parameters that have an effect on
R
0
. We estimate
R
0
using actual initial growth data of COVID-19 and calculate effective reproduction number for same period. Finally, an optimal control problem has been proposed considering effective vaccination and saturated treatment for hospitalized class to decrease density of the infected class and to minimize implemented cost.