Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 9; no. 1; p. 1277
• Main Authors: Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela, Hunink, Johannes E., Baruth, Bettina, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., Ward, Philip J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 04-02-2019; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/35/823; 704/242; 704/4111; Agricultural production; Climate adaptation; Climate variability; Crop production; Crops; Economic impact; El Nino; Growing season; Harvesting; Humanities and Social Sciences; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Southern Oscillation; Sugar; Trees; Europe
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-38091-4

Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.