Developing achievable alternate futures for key challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development

• Published in: Reviews in fish biology and fisheries Vol. 32; no. 1; pp. 19 - 36
• Main Authors: Nash, Kirsty L., Alexander, Karen, Melbourne-Thomas, Jess, Novaglio, Camilla, Sbrocchi, Carla, Villanueva, Cecilia, Pecl, Gretta T.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01-03-2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Biomedical and Life Sciences; Capacity; Careers; Co-design; Communication; Environmental management; Freshwater & Marine Ecology; Indigenous peoples; Interdisciplinary aspects; Life Sciences; Marine ecology; Oceans; Original Research; Social-ecological systems; Society; Sustainability; Sustainable development; Sustainable Development Goals; Zoology; Futures literacy; Scenario development; Backcasting; Foresight activities; Sustainable Development Goals
• ISSN: 0960-3166; 1573-5184
• DOI: 10.1007/s11160-020-09629-5

The oceans face a range of complex challenges for which the impacts on society are highly uncertain but mostly negative. Tackling these challenges is testing society’s capacity to mobilise transformative action, engendering a sense of powerlessness. Envisaging positive but realistic visions of the future, and considering how current knowledge, resources, and technology could be used to achieve these futures, may lead to greater action to achieve sustainable transformations. Future Seas (
www.FutureSeas2030.org
) brought together researchers across career stages, Indigenous Peoples and environmental managers to develop scenarios for 12 challenges facing the oceans, leveraging interdisciplinary knowledge to improve society’s capacity to purposefully shape the direction of marine social-ecological systems over the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030). We describe and reflect on Future Seas, providing guidance for co-developing scenarios in interdisciplinary teams tasked with exploring ocean futures. We detail the narrative development for two futures: our current trajectory based on published evidence, and a more sustainable future, consistent with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which is technically achievable using existing and emerging knowledge. Presentation of
Business
-
as
-
usual
and
More Sustainable
futures—together—allows communication of both trajectories, whilst also highlighting
achievable
, sustainable versions of the future. The advantages of the interdisciplinary approach taken include: (1) integrating different perspectives on solutions, (2) capacity to explore interactions between Life Under Water (Goal 14) and other SDGs, and (3) cross-disciplinary learning. This approach allowed participants to conceptualise shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieving those futures.